From the 11th to the 22nd of November, the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan. The Debt Observatory in Globalisation will be monitoring it from Baku and from Barcelona.
This COP is marked by a convulsive and tense international context, due to the escalation of war in the Middle East and the chronification of the war in Ukraine, as well as the civil war in Sudan, among others. Whilst the serious consequences of the recent floodings in Valencia have served as a reminder of the urgency of acting on the climate emergency to European leaders, the victory of a climate denialist like Donald Trump in the US elections looms like a shadow over this COP. Although the US delegation will still participate under the Biden administration, any progress made will most likely vanish in January, when the change of government becomes official. In fact, Trump has already announced his intention to withdraw the country from the Paris Agreement and the UNFCCC, as well as to increase fossil fuel extraction in the US.
What is at stake at COP29?
Although it seems that this year’s COP will have less media coverage than last year’s, it will be no less important. Its importance lies essentially in two reasons: the update of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the concretisation of agreements on climate finance.
According to the Paris Agreement, by February 2025 countries must update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), meaning each country’s plans to reduce emissions and adapt to the consequences of the climate crisis. The Paris Agreement also established the commitment to maintain a maximum temperature rise of 1.5ºC. Just these days, the Copernicus results have been made public, which have shown that 2024 will be the first year in which global warming exceeds 1.5ºC compared to the pre-industrial era (1850-1900). Specifically, it is estimated that 2024 will terminate with a temperature rise above 1.55ºC, exceeding the 1.48ºC of 2023. It is essential to update each country’s plans (NDCs) to improve their ambition.
Simultaneously, in order to enable greater ambition of the plans, it is essential to make financial resources available for the plans to be implemented. Precisely, the Paris Agreement also established that countries must agree on a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) by 2025. This will be, as we pointed out, one of the crucial issues of this edition.
It is estimated that countries will need between $5 trillion and $6.9 trillion between now and 2030 to meet their climate commitments, meaning their adaptation and mitigation commitments. At the same time, the Standing Committee on Finance Report states that data has been collected from national reports and that these may be incomplete due to a lack of available tools or capacity to calculate the cost of the needs. Therefore, the actual needs are likely to be higher and will increase as the effects of the climate crisis worsen.